Global soccer games most likely to produce 3+ goals, priced for the Betfair exchange.
Chance of 3+ goals is the middle value of every bookmaker's Over/Under 2.5 price for that game, with their margin removed. Using the middle value stops one odd bookmaker from skewing it.
Pinnacle is the sharpest bookmaker in the world. When its number is close to the board's number, trust the pick more.
Back at or above is the lowest Betfair price for Over 2.5 that is still a fair bet after commission. If the exchange offers less, wait or skip.
Over 2.5 rarely goes above about 80%, even in mismatches. At 70% the price is about 1.43, so you need roughly 7 wins in 10 just to break even.